Enter your location anywhere in the world to see personalized predictions for temperature shifts, precipitation changes, and extreme weather risk — powered by historical El Niño climate patterns across all continents.
A rare, high-intensity climate event with global consequences
An El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event where equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures exceed normal by 2.0°C or more. Only three have occurred since 1950 — 1972–73, 1982–83, and 1997–98, with 2015–16 close behind.
Climate models project a strong Pacific warming trajectory into 2026, driven by accumulated ocean heat content and weakened trade winds. Forecast confidence is moderate-to-high as of mid-2026.
El Niño reshapes atmospheric circulation worldwide — shifting jet streams, redirecting storm tracks, altering monsoons, and disrupting ocean currents. Every continent feels the impact, from Peruvian floods to Indian droughts to Australian cyclones.
12 sources · Click to expand · NOAA, IPCC, Hadley Centre, IRI, NASA & more
The predictions in this tool are derived from peer-reviewed ENSO research and operational climate monitoring data from the following institutions and publications
ENSO diagnostic discussion, ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) monitoring, and seasonal outlooks. The CPC's weekly SST anomaly data and El Niño/La Niña advisories define the operational threshold (±0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region) used throughout this model.
Historical climate records and ENSO event classification. The Super El Niño threshold of +2.0°C SST anomaly is based on NCEI's retrospective analysis of the 1972–73, 1982–83, and 1997–98 events. Regional US impact patterns (temperature, precipitation, storm frequency) are drawn from NCEI's Climate at a Glance datasets spanning 1950–2024.
HadISST sea surface temperature dataset (Rayner et al., 2003) — the foundational SST record used to classify all historical El Niño events. Global teleconnection patterns for Europe, Africa, and Asia are derived from Met Office Hadley Centre climate model outputs and the HadGEM3 ensemble.
International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. ENSO forecast plumes, probabilistic seasonal predictions, and regional teleconnection maps. The $700B global cost estimate is sourced from IRI's economic impact assessments of major ENSO events.
Regional impact estimates are grounded in published ENSO teleconnection research:
• Ropelewski & Halpert (1987, 1989) — canonical global precipitation/temperature ENSO teleconnection patterns (J. Climate)
• Trenberth et al. (1998, 2002) — El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global climate variability (BAMS / J. Geophys. Res.)
• McPhaden et al. (2006) — ENSO observing system and historical event analysis (J. Climate)
• Ham, Y. G. et al. (2013) — ENSO teleconnection diversity in the Western Pacific and Asian monsoon (Nature Climate Change)
Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report — Chapter 3 (Human Influence on Weather and Climate Extremes) and Chapter 11 (Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate). Projections for 2026 warming trajectories and amplified El Niño intensity under continued warming are informed by IPCC AR6 model ensembles (CMIP6).
Australian BoM ENSO Wrap-Up and Southern Oscillation Index monitoring. Regional impact data for eastern/northern Australia (cyclone frequency, flood patterns) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) interaction with ENSO. The +30% precipitation anomaly for eastern Australia is based on BoM historical composites from 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 events.
Japan Meteorological Agency ENSO monitoring and the JMA SST index. East Asian regional teleconnection patterns — including western Pacific typhoon modulation and Japan summer heat wave correlation — are derived from JMA historical composites and the Tokyo Climate Center's seasonal forecast guidance.
South African Weather Service and the Climate System Analysis Group at University of Cape Town. Southern African drought teleconnection data — the −35% precipitation anomaly and extreme drought classification are based on published ENSO-drought composites for the SADC region (Reason et al., 2005; Nicholson & Kim, 1997).
Instituto del Mar del Perú and the Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). The +80% precipitation anomaly and extreme storm classification for western South America are drawn from ENFEN's multi-decade monitoring of coastal El Niño impacts (1997–98, 2015–17) and IMARPE's fishery collapse records.
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISTEMP surface temperature analysis and the MODIS satellite SST record. These datasets provide the baseline "normal" temperature averages against which El Niño anomalies are measured, and underpin the global temperature anomaly visualizations.
World Meteorological Organization's Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPCLRFs). The WMO Lead Centre coordinates ENSO predictions from 12 global climate centers (NCEP, ECMWF, BoM, JMA, Met Office, CMA, KMA, Météo-France, DWD, Environment Canada, CPTEC, and IRI), whose multi-model ensemble forms the basis for 2026 forecast confidence levels cited here.
6 tips · Click to expand · Insurance, emergency kits, drainage, evacuation & more
Actions everyone should consider regardless of location
Check flood, wind, and property insurance. El Niño can bring unexpected severe weather to typically calm regions.
3 days of water, non-perishable food, first aid, flashlights, batteries, and important documents in a waterproof container.
Clean gutters, downspouts, and storm drains. Heavy El Niño rains overwhelm aging infrastructure.
Know your zone. Map multiple routes. Keep a full gas tank during peak months (Dec–Feb).
Trim trees near structures. Secure outdoor furniture. Consider erosion control for slopes.
Sign up for local emergency notifications. Enable Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone.